The Truth About Climate Change

Given the scientific uncertainty that surrounds global climate change, it is naturally a very difficult political issue. While the potential environmental risks of climate change are significant, so is the potential damage to America's economy from an excessive policy response.

Despite these uncertainties, we can act from what we do know for sure. According to the overwhelming majority of climate scientists, even those self-labeled "skeptics," the earth is warming, and humans have something to do with it. This warming, if it continues apace, has the potential to create profound impacts. But while many areas - especially coastal and mountain areas - will likely suffer from future climate change, a select few regions - such as the American Midwest - may even benefit from the warmer climate.

Unfortunately, even though warming is real and dangerous, there is little scientific certainty that humans are capable of mitigating it. Climate is a cyclical phenomenon with continual warming and cooling cycles over time, and because of that, it's difficult to know how much of today's warming is a result of those natural cycles instead of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Additionally, because CO2 and other greenhouse gases immediately mix in the atmosphere and stay in the atmosphere for decades and even centuries, there is great uncertainty over whether we'll even be able to prevent future climate change, even if our current emissions are somehow drastically reduced.

If there is one certainty about global climate change, therefore, it's that today's politicians don't know how to fix it. Popular schemes like "caps" (mandated emissions limits, quantified by the supposedly infinite wisdom of policymakers) or "cap-and-trade" (half-baked attempts to inject market "trading" to help soften the economic blow of command-andcontrol "cap" legislation) are delusional.

The only long-term emissions reduction solution will be through technological advancement and economic growth. However, that doesn't mean public policy can't play a role in that growth. While policies shouldn't attempt to mandate emissions reductions 50 years down the road, they certainly can help make a favorable economic environment for new technology to flourish. Furthermore, the successful development of clean energy provides social and economic benefits far beyond the mitigation of climate change.

In encouraging this development, there is one policy that can make sure market development takes account of the documented risk of harmful effects of greenhouse gas emissions, and that policy is the carbon tax. A carbon tax will merely assess a per-ton charge for CO2 emissions, serving dual purposes - first, as a revenuegenerating tool to help communities adapt to inevitable climate change, and second, as a market incentive for alternative fuels and other emissions reductions advances.

To ensure the carbon tax rate is set at a reasonable and accurate level to preserve economic growth, I propose that the tax rate be set at an average market index for carbon offsetting, allowing carbon offsets and other emissions-reducing innovations to be purchased by polluters as a tax-deductible expense. I urge all scientists, economists to help America design a robust carbon trading market to set this efficient tax rate.

If policymakers admit their own limitations, we can develop a policy to satisfy business and environmentalists alike. Now that's a convenient truth.

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